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Even though Trump would have carried Rep. Scott Perry’s south-central Pennsylvania seat had the current congressional map been in place in 2016, Democrats are anticipating a close House race in November. This is just the second time Perry is running under the district’s present configuration, and his Democratic opponent, state Auditor Eugene DePasquale, narrowly carried the seat in his 2016 statewide race.

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New Mexico’s 2nd District, in the arid and sparsely populated southern half of the state, is among the most rural of the Democratic-held seats Trump carried in 2016. That could make it harder for Torres Small, a water rights lawyer who has built a strong local profile, to hold on after her narrow 2018 victory. She faces a rematch with Republican former state Rep. Yvette Herrell, who has doubled down on her support for Trump.

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