ROY COOPER'S LEAD HOLDS
Democrat leads Republican Michael Whatley in Elon poll
ELECTIONS 2026
The polls continue to predict victory for Democrat Roy Cooper in North Carolina.
The final Elon University Poll before the Nov. 3 general election has Cooper with a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the U.S. Senate race.
The poll, released Tuesday, has Cooper with a 52% to 39% lead over Whatley. Poll data show 6% of voters are still undecided, while 3% prefer a third-party candidate.
The early voting period runs through 3 p.m. on Oct. 31.
Election Day is Nov. 3.
Former N.C. Gov. Cooper and Whatley, the former N.C. and national Republican Party chairman, are vying to succeed retiring Republican Thom Tillis.
The poll was conducted Sept. 30 through Oct. 6 among 800 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.03%.
The previous Elon poll, released in September, found that among 565 likely voters, 49% chose Cooper, 38% chose Whatley, 4% preferred other candidates, and 8% were undecided.
The October poll found that Whatley led among white voters by a 46%40% margin, while Cooper was ahead 70%-14% among Black voters and 59%-22% among Hispanic voters.
A key differentiator for the candidates is that while they are tied at 42% among male voters, Cooper is ahead 51%-34% among female voters.
"Roy Cooper's sustained lead over Michael Whatley in North Carolina is being driven in large part by strong support among moderates, true independents and women," said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll and professor of political science and public policy.
Potential turnout gap
Political analysts say Whatley has been challenged to establish statewide name recognition because his previous roles were more behind the scenes.
Meanwhile, Cooper has not lost an election in his political career, serving seven terms in the state legislature, four terms as attorney general and two terms as governor.
"We also are seeing signs of a potential turnout gap, with Cooper voters expressing higher levels of excitement about voting in the election and placing more importance on the election for real-world outcomes in their lives," Husser said.
Political analysts have been predicting the campaign could be the most expensive U.S. Senate race ever, with overall spending exceeding $1 billion.
However, multiple national and political media outlets have reported that several Republican-focused PACs, including the Senate Republican Leadership Fund, are lowering or pausing advertising spending on Whatley and shifting those funds to other Republican U.S. Senate candidates.
In turn, there are similar reports that Democrat-focused PACs already have or are planning to redeploy Cooper campaign funds to other Democrat U.S. Senate candidates.
Husser cautioned that there are "three findings in our data" that could give Whatley a glimmer of hope on Election Day.
Whatley has a slight advantage among undecided voters when we pressed them to make a choice, "attributable to more undecided voters being 2024 Trump voters than 2024 Harris voters," Husser said.
"Second, Whatley voters continue to predict he will ultimately win, suggesting his supporters are still motivated to cast their votes.
"Third, Cooper's lead among registered voters overall is smaller than his lead among the subset of registered voters who say they are likely to vote, implying opportunity for Republicans if they can motivate more of their base to turn out."
Following the trends
As of Tuesday, Cooper is the front-runner over Whatley in all 32 polls conducted this year with an average lead of 50.8% to 40.9%, according to political polling tracker Real Clear Polling.
The margins in the more recent polls range from a 5-point to a 15-point lead.
In June, the Sabato Crystal Ball from the Center for Politics shifted the campaign to lean Democratic, the current evaluation as of Tuesday. The poll did not provide a percentage lead for Cooper.
During an Oct. 9 Winston-Salem campaign stop Cooper cautioned supporters against allowing perceived polling success to lead to overconfidence among voters.
"I know that you've seen some things in the news about me being ahead of the polls, and you'd rather be ahead than behind, right?" Cooper said.
"We have had Democrats leading into November and lose in November, so we've got a lot of work to do between now and then."
Both President Donald Trump (Sept. 16 in Gastonia) and Vice President J.D. Vance (Sept. 21 in Greensboro and Monday in Hendersonville) have made N.C. campaign rally appearances on behalf of Whatley. Trump was scheduled for a rally on Tuesday in Greenville.
Trump has asked Republican voters to pretend he is on the 2026 ballot to spur turnout.
However, the Elon poll found that 43% of respondents said they would be less likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate, while 25% said they would be more likely, and 2% said it would not make a difference in their vote.
Trump's disapproval rating was 57%, while his approval rate was 34%.
Still, Husser said Whatley still could benefit from Trump and Vance campaigning on his behalf.
