America isn't ready for long war with Iran
Gas could climb to $5 or more if Iran retains ability to choke gulf for several more weeks
ANOTHER VIEW| PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE
It is now clear that the joint United States-Israeli war on Iran will not result in a quick capitulation by the Islamic Republic or an uprising by the Iranian people, as the Trump administration hoped.
This was sealed by President Donald Trump's demand that the Iranian regime "unconditionally surrender" — a goal that, in all likelihood, will only be achievable by marching U.S. troops into Tehran, and is even then no certainty.
Trump also indicated he will settle for no less than an American puppet regime in Tehran, mirroring the result the administration appears to have achieved (at least for now) in Venezuela. The president has gone as far as demanding a personal role in selecting Iran's next leader.
In the very first days of the war, Trump needed to articulate clear war aims to avoid another open-ended and ruinous commitment in Western Asia. The administration appears to be settling on the broadest possible aims — regime change and possibly nation-building — ensuring U.S. involvement in Iran not for days and weeks but months and years. And that's assuming the goals are achievable in the first place.
In the context of an already slowing economy and the destabilizing paradigm shift promised by artificial intelligence, the effects of a protracted war in such a sensitive region will likely make the coming months among the most economically uncertain and politically delicate in recent American history.
Yet little to no evidence suggests that the Trump administration appreciates, or has adequately planned for, the seriousness of the potential knock-on effects of its Persian adventure for geopolitics and for everyday Americans.
Every day the war continues on its current trajectory, the costs to the global economy will mount.
The market price of unrefined oil has already risen by nearly 50% since hostilities began. Americans can expect $4 gas shortly, and possibly $5 or more if Iran retains the ability to choke the gulf for several more weeks.
Given the gravity of the situation, we are particularly concerned by the attempts by the White House, and in particular the Department of Defense under Secretary Pete Hegseth, to present this war as an exercise in American machismo. The administration, for instance, has taken to releasing footage of U.S. bombing runs crudely interspersed with scenes from action movies or footage of homerun at-bats.
It's a 10-year-old boy's idea of effective propaganda. Indeed, it is a lesson that must apparently be learned again and again through history that warfare is not primarily about competing exertions of masculinity.
Now is not the time for machismo, but for sober strategizing. Blowing things up is part of winning, but it's not winning itself. That requires virtues much harder to come by: judgment, understanding, humility and the ability to accept a limited victory that's in America's, and the world's, best interests.
