It’s conference championship weekend, and there’s so much on the line in every one of the Power 5 title games.
Undefeated teams Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State could, with victories, cement their spots in the College Football Playoffs, while one-loss teams Oregon, Alabama and Texas are hoping to pull off a miracle by not only winning their respective conference championships, but also doing enough to impress the CFP committee to taking them as one of the final four teams to play for a national championship.
And then there’s Ohio State, which sits at No. 6 in the CFP poll and at home this weekend after losing to Michigan in The Game last Saturday.
Could the Buckeyes sneak in the Final Four again, despite not playing for a Big Ten title?
So much can – and will – happen this weekend.
So let’s get right into it, as FrontPageBets takes a look at each Power 5 conference championship game.
(All below odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change)
Pac-12 Championship predictions: No. 5 Oregon vs. No.3 Washington (+9.5)
It seems pretty simple for Washington: Win, and you’re in the College Football Playoff.
At 12-0 and ranked No. 3, the Huskies just have to take care of business and beat No. 5 Oregon (11-1) in the Pac-12 title game Friday night in Las Vegas.
The Ducks, however, need some help to get in. But there is a chance.
If Oregon can knock off Washington, is it enough to get them in the playoff? Another question: Will the committee select a one-loss conference champion from the Pac-12, even if there are multiple one-loss teams in the running from “better” conferences?
And what about Washington, even if they lose, did the Huskies do enough during the regular season to get in with one loss?
So many questions. But one thing’s for sure, Friday’s Pac-12 title game is the only thing either team can control.
Washington won 36-33 when these two teams met in the regular season on Oct. 14.
The Ducks haven’t lost since, and it really hasn’t been close, as they’ve won their last six games by an average score of 42-16.
Comparatively, the Huskies haven’t had it so easy. Yes, they’re undefeated, but won their last two games by a combined total of 5 points, putting up just 22 and 24 points respectively in those victories.
Oregon is second in the nation in scoring and in total offense, averaging 45.2 points and 540.2 yards per game, while the Huskies are just outside of the top 10 in both categories (38 ppg and 468.1 ypg).
It’s the quarterbacks who make both teams go.
Not only are they both legit Heisman Trophy candidates, they are No. 1 and 2 in the nation in passing – Oregon’s Bo Nix leads FBS with 3,906 passing yards, while Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is just 7 yards behind. Nix has thrown 37 touchdown passes to Penix’s 33.
This one, like their first meeting, will come down to which quarterback has the ball last.
Oregon wins, but doesn’t cover the 9.5 points.
- Kickoff: 8 p.m.; Friday (Las Vegas)
- TV: ABC
- The pick: Oregon, 38-35
Big 12 Championship predictions: No. 18 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas (-14.5)
Speaking of one-loss teams: No. 7 Texas (11-1) is in the mix for the College Football Playoff … if things get out of hand this weekend.
Yes, the Longhorns need a lot of help, with at least one of the undefeated teams needing to lose. But that still might not be enough, considering the bevvy of teams on the bubble. However, that early season win over No. 8 Alabama looks better and better.
None of that matters, of course, if Texas doesn’t beat Oklahoma State (9-3) in the Big 12 championship on Saturday afternoon in Arlington.
The Longhorns and Cowboys didn’t play during the regular season, but finished 1-2 in the conference to meet in the title game.
Texas’ offense is fourth in the Big 12, averaging 460.4 yards per game, while Oklahoma State’s defense is second-to-last in the 14-team conference, giving up 423.2 yards per outing.
And that’s where the Longhorns, who are averaging more than 35 points per game, will take advantage. Led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, Texas should be able to move the ball effectively to win and cover the 14.5-point spread.
But will it be enough to get them in the CFP? We’ll see.
- Kickoff: Noon; Saturday (Arlington, Texas)
- TV: ABC
- The pick: Texas, 35-17
SEC Championship predictions: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama (moneyline)
If there’s a conference that could get two one-loss teams into the College Football Playoff, it’s the SEC.
No. 1 Georgia (12-0) is the two-time defending champ, going for history as the first team in nearly 100 years to win three national championships in a row.
No. 8 Alabama (11-1) has been the most dominant program over the last 15 years, and it’s not close.
This SEC championship game from Atlanta is going to be an instant classic.
The Bulldogs can punch their ticket to the CFP with a win, while a loss by Alabama will eliminate them from a Final Four possibility with two losses.
However, if Alabama beats Georgia, what happens? There could be enough juice for both teams to get in the CFP if there are two or less undefeated teams remaining after Saturday night.
While a one-loss team won’t jump an undefeated team – at least we hope not – if there’s not enough undefeated squads to go around, the door is wide open for two one-loss SEC teams.
But as we know by now, that’s all talk and speculation. Georgia can make this argument moot with a win.
Right now, the Bulldogs are favored by 5.5 points.
Alabama, which is coming off one of the most amazing finishes in not only Iron Bowl but college football history with a crazy win over Auburn last week, is playing its best football with one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
Jalen Milroe is an incredible athlete and is developing into a complete player for the Tide, throwing for more than 2,500 yards and 21 touchdowns to go along with 12 rushing scores.
This season, Georgia has been good, but not as dominant as in years past, struggling with teams it should have easily handled. And if any coach can find a soft spot, it’s Alabama’s Nick Saban.
But let’s not forget, Georgia’s Kirby Smart, who is a former Saban assistant, knows how to win as well.
This one will be a heavyweight fight from the opening kick, with Alabama throwing a knock-out blow at the end.
- Kickoff: 4 p.m.; Saturday (Atlanta)
- TV: CBS
- The pick: Alabama, 28-27
Big Ten Championship predictions: No. 2 Michigan (-23.5) vs. No. 16 Iowa
No. 2 Michigan (12-0) might have the easiest path to the CFP as it will face No. 16 Iowa (10-2) in the Big Ten title game Saturday night in Indianapolis.
How’s that, you ask?
Because the Hawkeyes can’t score. Plain and simple.
Iowa is 121st out of 130 FBS teams in points per game, averaging 18 per.
And it’s not only that the Hawkeye offense is anemic, but consider that the Wolverines’ defense is the best in the nation. Michigan, which is scoring 37.6 points per game on offense, leads the country in scoring defense, giving up just 10.25 points.
Iowa points will be at a premium, for sure. It’s so bad that earlier in the week, some sportsbooks were even putting Iowa’s Over/Under first-half point total at 0.5 at even money.
You’d be hard-pressed to find any team in the country at this point in the season with more momentum than Michigan. The Wolverines are coming off a huge win over Ohio State, beating their rival for the third straight season for the first time in more than 25 years … and they get head coach Jim Harbaugh back this week after his three-game suspension.
Michigan wins going away.
- Kickoff: 8 p.m.; Saturday (Indianapolis)
- TV: FOX
- The pick: Michigan, 30-3
ACC Championship predictions: No. 14 Louisville (moneyline) vs. No. 4 Florida State
If there is any undefeated team that is ripe for the picking this weekend, it’s Florida State.
The 12-0 Seminoles would be a massive favorite Saturday night against Louisville if their star quarterback Jordan Travis didn’t suffer a serious, season-ending injury two weeks ago.
Instead, FSU is just a 2.5-point favorite over the Cardinals (10-2) with junior backup Tate Rodemaker under center.
Rodemaker did, however, help lead the Seminoles past Florida in the regular-season finale last weekend, but struggled mightily, completing just 48% of his passes for 134 yards and no touchdowns.
Louisville is a good football team, despite losing last week to Kentucky, which effectively took them out of any CFP conversation.
The Cardinals are third in scoring in the ACC, averaging 33 points per game. And while the Seminoles lead the conference in offense and scoring, they’re not the same team without Travis.
Look for Louisville to play spoiler in this one.
- Kickoff: 8 p.m.; Saturday (Charlotte, N.C.)
- TV: ABC
- The pick: Louisville, 24-21
Gambling problem? There is help. Call 1-800-522-4700 or visit the National Council on Problem Gambling for help.
You must be over 21 to play. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700. 1-800 GAMBLER.
Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 23-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.
